Shibani Sircar Kurian, the Senior EVP, Sr. Fund Manager, and Head of Equity Research at Kotak Mahindra AMC, believes that the budget expectations for 2024 will play a significant role in driving the market. The earnings trajectory for FY25 and FY26 looks promising, with mid-teens earnings growth following the 24% growth of Nifty in FY24. Despite concerns such as the potential hike in STT in the Budget to curb F&O trading, the market remains stable due to strong liquidity from SIP, EPF, and insurance funds. Kurian emphasizes the importance of focusing on earnings as the main driver for the market in the near term.
Looking ahead, Kurian sees potential for investment in the shipping sector in the upcoming Budget, which could impact specific stocks in the market. The government’s focus on investment-led growth, particularly in infrastructure, presents opportunities for market growth. With adequate fiscal space and the recent RBI dividend, the government has room to boost infrastructure investment and stimulate demand in key sectors.
From a risk-reward perspective, Kurian suggests that largecaps and larger midcaps offer more favorable valuations compared to smallcaps and microcaps at the current market stage. She focuses on the potential of the private sector banking sector and the consumption space, particularly staples, as attractive investment opportunities. While market froth may exist in certain segments, Kurian remains positive on sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and autos, taking note of valuation comfort in specific areas.
In terms of stock picking, Kurian advises being selective and strategic, especially in volatile market conditions. She highlights the need for careful consideration of valuations, growth opportunities, and sector-specific trends. Despite market fluctuations, Kurian believes that long-term growth prospects in the equity market remain robust, particularly in sectors linked to the financialization of savings and evolving business models.
Regarding smallcaps, Kurian recognizes the frothiness in the segment but emphasizes the importance of analyzing individual companies based on their growth prospects and fundamentals. While some smallcaps may be overvalued, others may still offer potential investment opportunities. Moving forward, Kurian stresses the need for a discerning approach to stock selection within the smallcap and midcap space.
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