India’s Potential to Become the World’s 2nd Largest Economy by 2031: Insights from RBI Deputy Governor Patra
In a recent address, Reserve Bank deputy governor Michael D Patra highlighted India’s potential to become the second largest economy by 2031 and even the largest by 2060, citing the country’s innate strengths. He noted that while India has immense potential, there are challenges to overcome, including issues related to labour productivity, infrastructure, the manufacturing sector’s contribution to GDP, and the need for a greener economy.
Patra emphasized that with determination and collective effort, India can achieve its aspirational goals and emerge as a global economic powerhouse sooner than anticipated. He pointed out that if India maintains a growth rate of 9.6% annually over the next decade, it can break free from the lower middle-income trap and transition into a developed economy.
Regarding income milestones, Patra mentioned that India needs to achieve both middle-income country status, with a per capita income range of $4516-14,005, and eventually surpass the threshold for developed country status, anticipated to be USD 34,000. He also highlighted the importance of using purchasing power parity (PPP) for accurate cross-country comparisons, emphasizing India’s position as the third-largest economy in the world based on PPP.
Looking ahead, Patra referenced projections by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), suggesting that India could surpass the US as the second largest economy by 2048 in PPP terms. He stressed the significance of maintaining price stability through effective monetary policy, which is crucial for sustaining long-term economic growth and positioning India as a global economic leader.
In conclusion, Patra underscored the importance of aligning India’s inflation rates with global trends to preserve the value of the rupee and pave the way for the internationalization of the currency. By focusing on these key areas and leveraging its strengths, India has the potential to achieve remarkable economic growth and solidify its position on the global stage.
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